Are You Not Being Entertained? The Decline of Open-Play Goals from Open Play

Football match action
Wolves recorded 10 fewer scores from open-play situations than at this stage last season.

One of the biggest stories of the EPL this campaign concerns the reduction of goals scored in open play and how sides are netting more from dead-ball situations as an alternative.

Looking at goal sources to the first 11 games the prior season, there have been 39 fewer scored in open-play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and penalties, resulting in 13 less overall.

Examining overall statistics, the number of shots teams are taking reveal a staggering 370 fewer in open-play than this time last time out.

Regardless of the significant rise in set-piece goals, there have actually been only two additional shots generated from these situations excluding penalties, showing the proficiency teams have been at devising strategies to score from set-pieces.

Scoring Rates Tell the Tale

301 total goals recorded in 110 games up to now calculates at 2.74 scores per fixture, which if it continued for the entire campaign could be the least for five years, back in 2020-21 (2.69 average).

But just 196 scores coming in open play equates to 1.78 each match and is heading to be the lowest for since 2009-10, back in 2009-10 (1.76 per game).

2009-10 is also the unique EPL season to experience goals scored more frequently from dead-balls without spot-kicks than the current rate of 0.77 each match (0.79).

What Clubs Are Most Responsible?

Regarding goals scored from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen the largest decline, scoring a mere four in 11 games, 10 fewer than at this stage the previous campaign.

Excluding Wolverhampton, the EPL's drop in goals from open play is largely a London phenomenon, with half of the capital's seven sides netting at least five goals fewer from open play than the previous year.

To be fair, this is mainly because them netting lots of scores at the start of the previous campaign rather than them really struggling to convert in open-play this season.

Conversely Manchester City have experienced the most significant jump, with almost every one of their 23 goals this season originating in open play.

Set-Play Proficiency

Comparing the promoted teams with those that were relegated that they superseded. Play-off champions Sunderland have scored an additional three goals in open play than Southampton did in their opening 11 matches en route to the drop the previous campaign.

When it comes to scoring from dead-ball situations (excluding spot-kicks), Arsenal and Chelsea have seen the most significant jump, with both sides compensating for the five fewer scores that they've produced in open-play with the same number from dead-ball chances.

Man United have scored double the number scores from set-pieces as they managed in matchday 11 last season before the manager took charge, while Sunderland additionally are more effective at scoring than the fellow red-and-whites that went down.

Man City appear not to have received the trend about increasing scoring from set-plays, as they've netted a reduction of three than the previous campaign, similar to Forest, though that might be down to the change in style they have tried to implement.

General Tendencies

Six teams – the Gunners, the Blues, Fulham, the Magpies, Spurs and West Ham – represent this term's top trend-setters by scoring fewer scores from open-play and additional from set-pieces, while City represent the sole team to go against the grain up to now by doing the contrary.

It will be interesting to observe if clubs continue to depend greatly on set-plays as matches continue or if they regain their overall inventiveness and commence converting more goals in open play as well.

Jennifer Nguyen
Jennifer Nguyen

A financial analyst with over a decade of experience in global markets, specializing in portfolio management and risk assessment.