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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement wins the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest shock.

But this year's race is distinctly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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