A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
