Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Serious Barriers in the Selection Process
Several members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.
